The Starts, The Sits, and The Risks – Week 5 Edition

Starting next week, I will be resuming the Weekly Recaps, as well as publishing an article about my evaluation ofJameis Winston thus far in his rookie season based on what I’ve seen (I’m planning on doing one for Marcus Mariota as well). Without further ado, here are my fantasy football picks for this week:

The Starts

Leonard Hankerson – Hankerson has been emerging in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and is facing his former team this week. This in normally a good combination for players to come out and perform well, not to mention that the Falcons will be at home this week. After Hankerson had a good week last week, posting 6 catches for 103 yards and a touchdown, I look for him to build on that performance against a suspect Washington secondary, as they will be focusing on stopping Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman, meaning that Hankerson will see a lot of 1-on-1 coverage.

Owen Daniels – Tight Ends have had their way with the Raiders defense this season, they are ranked dead last in terms of points allowed to the position this season. Martellus Bennett put up 11 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown last week with Jay Cutler at QB. Peyton Manning to Owen Daniels is a combination you’ll hear often on Sunday.

Jordan Matthews – Matthews hasn’t had a touchdown since week 2, I see that changing this week against the New Orleans Saints, as their defense has been nothing short of terrible this season, even with the regression of Sam Bradford, Matthews will be running open all day against the Saints. The only fear is that Brandon Browner might get called for defensive holding every play of the game (Okay, that might be a slight exaggeration, but who would be surprised by this?).

Justin Forsett – Before last week, Forsett seemed destined to be this season’s “One-Hit Wonder” award (which I will give out at the end of the season to a highly touted player coming off of 1 good year, only to come falling back to earth this year), but he got back on track against the Steelers to the tune of 150 yards. With the Cleveland Browns coming to town, I see Forsett having a great game against an awful Browns run defense.

Carson Palmer – 10 touchdowns through 4 weeks and a QB rating of 106.4 are great numbers, those are going to improve against a struggling Lions defense this week, who are surrendering over 270 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, and are giving up 46% of third down conversions, I like Palmer to get lots of chances to throw to all of his weapons on offense.

The Sits

Matthew Stafford – The Cardinals defense gives up an average of 13 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and on top of that, Stafford has struggled mightily to this point in the season. Even with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate on the outside, Stafford hasn’t been able to put it all together, and should be on the bench for this game.

Alfred Morris – Sitting Morris against a team that gives up a ton of yards and points to opposing running backs? I must be crazy to sit him down this week, but here’s why I say sit him: The Falcons give up a ton of points to receiving backs, plodders like Morris, not so much. Lance Dunbar had a great game receiving, Joseph Randle started the game great, but I think Randle has more breakaway speed than Morris has ever had. Not to mention the Running back by committee approach in our nations capital, with Matt Jones and Chris Thompson eating into Morris’ snaps.

Amari Cooper – Cooper has been great the last few weeks, he’s put up good fantasy point totals, but I do not like his matchup this week, as the Raiders take on the Broncos. The Broncos have 18 sacks so far this season, they’ve averaging 4.5 per game, plus they have Aqib Talib to blanket opposing teams #1 receiver. Between Carr having no time to throw, and Cooper being covered by one of the best corners in the league, let him sit for a week.

Zach Ertz – Ertz has been the proverbial fantasy “tease” for years, many people drafting for the potential that exists for him to become a number 1 TE, however, he always seems to be stuck behind Brent Celek, as he is not as good of a blocker as Celek. I’d let this guy ride the bench until he actually shows it on the field, including this week against the Saints/

The Risks

All kickers – seriously though, did you see the number of missed field goals last week? Talk about a risk. If you don’t have one of the best in the league, it just seems like you’ve got a guy who’s gonna miss one (Which will be the difference between you winning and losing, of course)

Andy Dalton – as great as Dalton has been this season, and he’s been among the best quarterbacks in the league. he’s also going against the Seahawks this week, the good news for Dalton is that this game is in Cincinnati, and is during the day, so he could be in for a solid start, despite the legion of boom. This should be a fun matchup to watch, but it could be stressful if you decide to start Dalton (someone could trick him into thinking it’s a playoff game… yikes)

Sam Bradford – His confidence is shaky, and that’s always a scary thing for a quarterback, especially a quarterback who’s got a shaky offensive line, and a madman calling the plays. Yes, he is against the Saints this week, but I could see another mediocre performance from Bradford coming if the Eagles offensive line continues to struggle.

T.J. Yeldon – Yes, Yeldon is going against the Buccaneers this week, that’s the good news, the bad news is that he still plays for the Jaguars. Yeldon, despite the preseason hype, has yet to score a touchdown in the regular season, and is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry. That’s not what you want to see from a guy who’s been so highly touted this year. Could this be the week he puts together a good performance? Maybe, but the Jaguars seem to like proving me wrong (See Robinson, Allen for week 2)

Tennessee Titans Running Backs – who’s going to get the most carries and/or catches this week? Will it be Bishop Sankey? Dexter McCluster? Antonio Andrews? Eddie George? LenDale White? Who knows, if you’ve got a gut feeling on any of them, it’s going to present a massive risk to start any of them. You could get a Ryan Matthews type stat-line. 100+ or 0 yards are equally as likely with these guys.

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