Top 15 Players Who Will Be Over drafted in the 2017 NFL Draft

As we approach the 2017 NFL Draft, there will be countless mock drafts and best player lists by position, but this list will be a little different: this is a list of players that will be drafted too early for their position or talent. This isn’t to say that any of these players will be busts, they could be talented players drafted too soon, or above players that may be overlooked and a better value later in the draft. This list is going to be limited to players with realistic shots at being taken in the first or second round, think of players like Christian Hackenberg who was drafted last year in the 2nd round by the New York Jets, when they could have had players like Deion Jones, Su’a Cravens, Joe Thuney, and even Dak Prescott was available. Without further ado, let’s get into the list.

  1. Jonathan Allen – Defensive End, Alabama: Before you take out your torches and pitchforks, I think Allen will be a fine NFL player and a good run-stuffer, but based on his tape and his combine numbers, Allen may struggle as a pass rusher from the tackle position, or even as a 3-4 DE. He seems more of a complimentary rusher as opposed to a star pass rusher (A Robin instead of a Batman, if you will). It helps to play on the Alabama defense, which features a ton of NFL caliber talent, which could lead to why he’s a bit overhyped. All of this is fine from a defensive lineman taken late in the 1st round or early 2nd round, but for someone who, in most mock drafts, is going between the 2nd and 8th overall pick, he could be a disappointment with expectations that high.
  1. Marshon Lattimore – Cornerback, Ohio State: Lattimore has the physical tools to be a very good NFL corner, he’s got great speed and athleticism, good size, and played on against Big Ten competition, so why is he on this list? He was a 1-year starter at Ohio State, he’s had issues in off coverage, did not see the opposing teams’ best receivers, that job mostly fell to Gareon Conley. The biggest issue with Lattimore is his health, he’s had multiple hamstring issues in his career, most significantly in 2015, which caused him to miss 7 games. He also pulled up lame at the NFL Combine, which raises red flags as to how well he’ll hold up over a 16-game schedule at the next level.
  1. John Ross – Wide Receiver, Washington: Ross is the man who broke Chris Johnson’s combine record in the 40-yard dash, does that make him a top-15 player? No. He’s got great speed, but has no answer to press coverage, has below average strength for a receiver, gets too emotional on the field over drops and missed throws, however, he does play with the same speed in-game that he showed off at the combine. The biggest thing working against him, he could be drafted ahead of players like Corey Davis and Mike Williams, guys who are more prototypical players who could be special talents. Ross can be the next DeSean Jackson, or he could be the next Brandin Cooks, and Cooks was just traded for the 32nd pick. Who would you rather have? Cooks with the 32nd pick, or Ross with as high as the 13th overall pick?
  1. Deshaun Watson – Quarterback, Clemson: I think Watson is the best QB prospect in this class, he should be a mid to late first round pick, but I could see a team take him or trade up for him in the top-10 picks of the draft, which is too early for a quarterback that might need to sit for a year and learn the pro game from a veteran QB. A team like Kansas City would be ideal for Watson, as Alex Smith is 33 going on 34, and Andy Reid has a history of developing quarterbacks into pro level passers, like Donovan McNabb, and a rehabbed Michael Vick. If a team like the Jets, 49ers, or Browns take him, he could be forced to start before he’s ready.
  1. Obi Melifonwu – Cornerback/Safety, UConn: Melifonwu comes in at 6’4”, runs a 4.40 second 40-yard dash, and can hit, which all sounds great, until you remember that Taylor Mays came in with a very similar draft profile and combine performance, but Mays is currently out of football. Not exactly the player you’d want your 1st round pick to be compared to. Melifonwu seems to have better ball instincts than Mays, but he also gets tied up when it’s time to turn and run with receivers deep. He needs to be coached up, but there’s a ton of potential if he goes to the right team, and, more importantly, without the pressure of being a 1st round pick in this draft.
  1. Christian McCaffrey – Running Back, Stanford: McCaffrey is a good football player for sure, but he’s a solid 2nd round player, not a top-15 or even top-10 pick as some mock drafts have seen him go. McCaffrey has proven to be a multidimensional player, who can have an impact as a back, a receiver, and a returner. A team that tries to use him as a primary back will be very disappointed, as he will not hold up under a workload involving more than 300 carries and 40-50 catches a season. McCaffrey also lacks that next gear, and that burst to get away from defenders. In the right offenses, he can be downright scary, but if he’s asked to be the lead guy, he won’t hold up.
  1. Jordan Willis – EDGE, Kansas State: Billed as a “tweener” (A player who can play defensive end or outside linebacker, depending on scheme), Willis has a lot of potential as a developmental “Robin” type of pass rusher, but due to the ever-growing need for pass-rushers among teams could be drafted to be a “Batman”, or worse yet, he could be asked to cover if he’s drafted into a 3-4 scheme, something Willis was not asked to do in college, could present problems at the next level. He has not yet developed enough pass rushing moved to consistently beat tackles in the NFL.
  1. Cam Robinson – Offensive Tackle, Alabama: In a weak Tackle class, there are bound to be some reaches in this draft, Tackles were overpaid in Free Agency this year, but for those teams desperate to improve their offensive lines, they might look at Robinson as a left tackle, when he might be better off as a right tackle, as his technique is raw, he loses balance lunging at opposing pass rushers, he ducks his head as a run-blocker, but is a solid road grader. Road graders play right tackle, they don’t protect the Quarterback’s blindside. Robinson could be a top-20 pick, but for someone who plays similarly to Ereck Flowers of the NY Giants, I wouldn’t take him in the first round, let alone the top-20.
  1. Ryan Ramczyk – Offensive Tackle, Wisconsin: Ramczyk can appear to be the ideal NFL left tackle with his size, his game speed, and his ability to keep rushers off his QB in 1-on-1 blocking, that is until you realize how easily he’s beaten by a spin-move, in watching game film against Michigan game, along with some issues getting to the next level and staying on his blocks at times. He might be better off as a right tackle, much like Cam Robinson. Also like Cam Robinson, Ramczyk could be over drafted to play left tackle.
  1. Alvin Kamara – Running Back, Tennessee: Kamara seems to be more of a 2nd round player in most mock drafts, but Kamara is more of a day 3 pick based on film and most scouting reports, especially with his lack of field vision and fumbling issues at the college level, he also has durability concerns at a position that’s prone to injury. He could find a role as a solid platoon back who can play on any down, as he is a good pass protector and receiver out of the backfield. He’s also been known as a leader at Tennessee, which could serve him well in whatever locker room he ends up in.
  1. Mitch Trubisky – Quarterback, North Carolina: Trubisky could be a very good quarterback in the NFL, if he goes to a team with a decent offensive line and doesn’t need to play early, as he will need time to learn to play under center, and he needs to get better at recognizing blitzes and knowing when the pocket is breaking down. He’s got a good, strong-arm, he can read coverages effectively. The biggest red flag about Trubisky is that he’s only been a 1-year starter in college, not giving teams time to adjust to him, meaning he hasn’t necessarily had to adjust his game to defenses exposing his weaknesses. As a late 1st round, early 2nd round QB, he should be fine, but if he’s taken in the first 10-15 picks (Looking at you, NY Jets) he could be in trouble.
  1. Jabrill Peppers – LB/S/KR/Offensive Weapon, Michigan: Peppers is a solid football player, he’s got the versatility to play linebacker, safety, he can return kicks, and even played a bit of offense for the Wolverines, so what’s the issue? Lack of impact plays in pass defense, he had 1 career interception and only 10 passes defensed in his entire career. This isn’t a guy you take in the first round, as he is an electric return man, even Devin Hester, the best return man in NFL history, was a 2nd round pick. The idea that Peppers is the next Charles Woodson is a pipe dream. He can be a fine NFL player, but Peppers is a solid player, not a playmaker. Playmakers are special talents worth a 1st round pick, Peppers isn’t that guy right now, could he be? Maybe, but that’s too big a risk for a top pick.
  1. Joe Mixon – Running Back, Oklahoma: We’ve all heard about Mixon’s off-the-field issues, which is a part of the reason he’s this high on the list, the other reasons are that he doesn’t have great feet or great vision to find holes and creases in the run game. He doesn’t create plays in the running game the way other top backs in this class do, Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette do that, that’s why they’re possible first round picks. Mixon also hops around into his cuts as opposed to planting his foot in the ground for clean cuts. He’s a very good receiver out of the backfield, and has been a very good player at Oklahoma, but will that translate to the next level? That’s too many questions and issues for a borderline 1st possible 2nd round pick.
  1. Patrick Mahomes – Quarterback, Mahomes is alarmingly similar to Jay Cutler in terms of his physical talent, which is good, but he can also be Cutler-like in how he makes decisions, which is bad, and he is inconsistent in terms of how much touch he puts on the ball, which is ugly at times. He’s very mobile, but is not a running QB, he’s the kind of player that will drive fans and coaches crazy early on in his career, like all the other top quarterbacks in this draft, he needs a good amount of time to adapt to the pro game before he gets thrown to the wolves. A team like Houston at 25 could take him and thrust him into the starting lineup before he’s ready, or if Arizona takes him at 13, he may be expected to take over for Carson Palmer before he’s ready to play. He should be a 2nd round pick at the highest, but we could see a 2011 NFL Draft like run on quarterbacks.
  1. Deshone Kizer – Quarterback, Notre Dame: Kizer should scare teams more than he does, he struggled to hold down the starting job, his own coach has admitted he needs time to develop as a quarterback prospect, not to mention the mechanical and mental issues in his game. He doesn’t lead his receivers the way he should, he doesn’t have the anticipation needed to play early on. Quarterbacks that need as much time as Kizer will need typically go in the 3rd and 4th round, but he is still touted as a potential 1st round pick. He’s also had at least 1 interception in 15 of his 23 starts.

Leave a comment