After a long and surprising 2016, we have finally arrived on Super Sunday with a team everyone expected to be here in the Patriots, and a team no one expected to be here in the Falcons (Seriously, no expert picked the Falcons to be here, only a madden simulation did). Let’s take a look at how these two teams got to this point in the season.

New England Patriots:

The Pats started their season with Tom Brady serving a 4-game suspension over the deflategate scandal from 2014, people wondered how well they would fare without their star QB. In comes Jimmy Garroppolo led the team to a thrilling win over the Cardinals (who lost on a missed field goal attempt) in week 1, then played extremely well in a week 2 win over the Dolphins, but Garroppolo left the game with a shoulder injury, and missed the next 2 games. In comes Jacoby Brissett who managed the next 2 games well enough to beat the Texans 27-0 on Thursday Night Football, but lost to the Bills 16-0, giving the keys back to Brady on a 3-1 team (Probably why he didn’t win MVP, but more on that later). Brady proceeded to set an NFL record for TD-INT ratio over a season, 28-2, in an 11-1 season in which his only loss was to the Seattle Seahawks in Foxborough. The Pats, as usual didn’t face much competition for the AFC East title, and kept rolling on their way to the number 1 seed in the AFC Playoffs, clinching home-field advantage throughout.

En route to the Super Bowl, the Pats played the Houston Texans in the divisional round of the playoffs, who put up a tough fight in the first half, thanks to their number 1 overall defense (in terms of yards allowed), but ultimately, Brock Osweiler fell apart in the second half, and the Patriots ran away with the game, thanks in large part to the heroics of Dion Lewis. In the AFC Championship Game, the Pats caught a huge break when Le’Veon Bell left in the first quarter with a groin injury, and was unable to get back into the game. The Steelers fought hard, but again, after halftime, they just couldn’t score on the Patriots number 1 scoring defense on the way to an easy Patriots win.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons started their season with a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a game in which it looked like Jameis Winston was ready to take the next step in becoming a franchise quarterback, and it looked like it could the start of a long year for the Falcons. This was a different team than last years team, as they ripped off 4 straight wins, including back to back 45+ point performances in games against the Panthers and Saints, the latter of which was the 10-year anniversary of the Superdome reopening after Katrina. The world was introduced to this new, seemingly unstoppable Falcons offense, and rookie linebacker Deion Jones, who returned an interception of Drew Brees 90 yards for a touchdown in that game. A mid-season lull would follow that 4-1 start, as Hotlanta would cool off, losing 4 of their next 7 games. How would Atlanta finish? Would they win the NFC South, or would it be the upstart Buccaneers, who, after losing to Atlanta 43-28, suddenly became a stingy defense, and were in the division title race until week 16, when the Falcons clinched in a win over the Panthers. Week 17 became an extremely meaningful game once the Seahawks lost to the Cardinals, it meant that Atlanta was in position to get the number 2 seed in the NFC Playoffs, allowing them to get at least 1 home game by beating the rival New Orleans Saints.

In the NFC Playoffs, Atlanta faced off against Seattle first, who had beaten the Falcons earlier in the season (in Seattle) on a missed pass interference call against Richard Sherman. The Seahawks took the opening drive down the field for a touchdown, Atlanta responded by taking a 19-10 lead into halftime, after Matt Ryan directed a 9 play 99 yard drive just before halftime, finding a wide open Tevin Coleman in the endzone. Atlanta controlled the game in the second half, on their way to a 36-20 win. In the NFC Championship game, which will go down as one of the most memorable games in Atlanta sports history, the Falcons got out to a 24-0 halftime lead on Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, only to extend it to a 31-0 lead after forcing a Packers 3 and out on their opening drive of the second half. This was a result very few people saw coming, there were a ton of blowouts in this year’s playoffs, but this was the most lopsided of them all in terms of how dominant the Falcons were, the final score of 44-21 doesn’t show just how dominant Atlanta was.

The Prediction

In last year’s Super Bowl, I pointed out how frequently the #1 defense has beaten the league MVP, and this year, we have the number 1 scoring defense (New England), going against the NFL MVP (Matt Ryan, QB of the Falcons). This was the main reason I picked the Denver Broncos to upset the Carolina Panthers, who were a great team in their own right. This year is interesting, because the Patriots defense gave up a ton of yards, but would tighten up in the redzone, the old “bend, don’t break” style of defense, whereas the Broncos were a total shutdown defense, built to stop everyone in their tracks. The question that will come up for a lot of people is this: Can the Falcons defense slow down Brady and the Pats offense? The answer is yes, they actually can. There was a ton of pressure on Aaron Rodgers throughout the Packers game, and the Packers offensive line is the best group of pass protectors in the league. Getting pressure on Brady early is the way to throw him off of his game, look no further than what the Texans did to frustrate Brady, they through Whitney Mercilus at him mercilessly up the middle. The Patriots will need to focus on stopping the Falcons rushing attack if they’re going to limit the Falcons offense, which is easier said than done. They’ll need Alan Branch and Malcom Brown to play even better than they’ve played to this point in the season.

So who’s going to win?

Despite the stats that tell me the Pats should win, my gut says that the Atlanta Falcons take down Goliath in a very close, hard-fought game

27-23 Falcons take home their first Lombardi Trophy in franchise history.