2016 NFL Division Predictions

With the 2016 Season about to kickoff, it’s time to make some predictions that could look silly by mid-season, but isn’t that what we love about sports? Anyway, onto the predictions, starting with division standings:

AFC East:

  1. New England Patriots – Even though the Patriots will be missing Tom Brady’s luscious locks, they still have the most talented roster in the division, and the best coaching staff in the division. Even if they get out to a 1-3 start with Jimmy Garoppolo, they should have Brady coming back strong for the rest of the season. As long as this team stays healthy, they’re a contender in the AFC.
  2. New York Jets – Before the injuries and suspensions on the Bills defense, I had them as the #2 team in the AFC East, but as everything stands as of now, the Jets have the most balanced team remaining in the division. With Matt Forte added in the mix, the Jets have another receiving threat out of the backfield, and someone who can run well between the tackles, there will be times where they miss Chris Ivory’s hard running style, but Forte’s is more sustainable across a full season.
  3. Buffalo Bills – Tyrod Taylor, Sammy Watkins, and LeSean McCoy are all high-level playmakers for the Bills offense, with a solid line in front of them (leading the Bills to the top rushing offense a year ago by 9.4 yards per game). However, Rex Ryan’s defense was a major issue, finishing 19th, and with a near major mutiny among the players, including former #1 overall pick and sack artist, Mario Williams. They’ve already lost their top 2 draft picks to injuries in the offseason, and Marcel Dareus is suspended for the first 4 games of the season. If the Bills have another rough year, they could be looking for a new coach in the offseason as well.
  4. Miami Dolphins – Year one of Adam Gase could be rough, despite having some talent on offense, including Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker at receiver and a decent offensive line, there are a ton of questions with their running game, as Arian Foster is expected to start week one. If Foster stays healthy, that should be just fine, and could lead to a rise in the standings, but Foster hasn’t been able to stay healthy and play 16 games since 2012. As for the defense, other than that extremely talented defensive line and Reshad Jones at safety, there isn’t much in terms of speed or great cover guys.

AFC North:

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers – Despite the suspensions of Martavis Bryant (Full year) and Le’Veon Bell (3 games), the Steelers offense should still hum right along with Antonio Brown, Deangelo Williams, and Ben Roethlisberger, with a good offensive line and a solid front seven on defense, the Steelers should be in the driver’s seat for an AFC North title. The secondary is a concern, however.
  2. Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals have a ton of turnover on offense, specifically with the receiving corp, as Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu left in free agency, and Tyler Eifert is recovering from offseason surgery. How will Andy Dalton’s chemistry be with Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd? This is a team that should still make the playoffs as a wild-card, but it may take another year before they’re a serious title contender.
  3. Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens are a team in transition right now, as most of their roster is filled with older veterans (27th oldest in the league, according to Phillyvoice.com). They’re relying on a former Browns cast-off (Terrence West) to be the lead running back, aging pass rushers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil to chase down opposing quarterbacks, not a great formula for success this season. Good news for Ravens fans though: you still have Ozzie Newsome running the front office, and Joe Flacco under center.
  4. Cleveland Browns – As much as I like Hue Jackson and the direction of the front office, this rebuild is going to take a while. With Corey Coleman, Josh Gordon, and Terrelle Pryor in the mix, the Browns receivers have potential, Duke Johnson provides some explosiveness out of the backfield. The defense however, doesn’t appear to have many playmakers aside from Joe Haden.

AFC South:

  1. Houston Texans – With the best defense, by far, in the division, the Texans offense just needs to be pretty good to win. There are a lot of new faces on the Texans offense, but with Lamar Miller, DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Braxton Miller in the mix, this team is loaded with young offensive talent. It may take a few weeks for these guys to get on the same page as Brock Osweiler, but when they start clicking, they could be hard to stop.
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars – A trendy playoff pick this season, the Jaguars are on the way to being a contender with an exciting offense and a young, talented defense, however, both units still need time to gel, and the offensive line is still a question. Blake Bortles came into his own last year, however, he needs to cut down the turnovers, after leading the NFL with 18 interceptions. If the Jaguars are going to be successful, they need to win the turnover battle more often.
  3. Tennessee Titans – The Titans are a difficult team to figure out, they trade for DeMarco Murray, then draft Derrick Henry to give them a pair of sledgehammers in the backfield, then draft Tajae Sharpe later in the draft, leading to the trade of Dorial Green-Backham to the Eagles. The offense should be fine under the care of Marcus Mariota, but the defense is a question mark, as Jurrell Casey is the only elite player on that side of the ball.
  4. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts are not a good football team, they have a good quarterback coming off a lost season, good wide receivers in TY Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Phillip Dorsett. As for the offensive line and defense, it’s about the same as it’s been since Bert Jones was suiting up for the Colts in the 1970’s and early 80’s: average on their best days, dreadful on others. Jim Irsay seems to think a quarterback should win every game by himself, this year, the team pays for his philosophy.

AFC West:

  1. Oakland Raiders – This was the toughest call to make among all of the division champions, as there could realistically be 3 teams coming out of the AFC West for playoff spots, but the Raiders are a team on the rise, with a young gunslinger at quarterback, a pair of high-end receivers, one of the best offensive lines in the AFC, Khalil Mack coming off the edge, Dan Williams plugging up the middle, Bruce Irvin and Sean Smith brought in as free agents in the offseason to help ease the burden on the offense, Oakland has a lot to like, despite the weaknesses at safety and depth in the secondary.
  2. Denver Broncos – The Broncos still boast the best defense in the division, along with a great pair of receivers on offense, Virgil Green emerging at TE, C.J. Anderson leading a strong running back group, but the biggest question mark has to be the quarterback situation. Between Peyton Manning’s retirement after winning the Superbowl, and Brock Osweiler’s defection to Houston, this left Denver with only Trevor Siemian remaining on the roster, leading the Broncos to draft Paxton Lynch, who will not be starting opening night in Denver. Siemian has had an up and down preseason, but he’s shown a clear understanding of the offense, and despite some mistakes, has looked solid from what he’s shown in live game action. Denver nabs a playoff spot, but it’s much more difficult than last year
  3. Kansas City Chiefs – It may look absurd to have the Chiefs in 3rd place, with how talented their roster is, but they’re not quite on the level of the Raiders and Broncos, the defense is very good, but will be missing their best player: Justin Houston for the first 6 weeks, at least, which is tough for any defense. Jamaal Charles is not yet healthy either, and he could miss at least week 1 recovering from a torn ACL suffered last season. This is a solid team, but it might not be as good as it was last year, still a fringe playoff contender though.
  4. San Diego Chargers – The Chargers have issues, especially on the defensive side of the ball, the front seven is still slow, only Denzel Perryman stands out as a playmaker at the linebacker position, the offensive line is still a mess, despite having Joe Barksdale returning from injury. When Joe Barksdale is your ace in the hole for your line, that’s an issue. The cornerback position is very good, and Phillip Rivers can still sling it with the top QBs in the league, but those few things aren’t enough in one of the best divisions in football.

NFC East:

  1. Washington Redskins – Many analysts seem to have the Giants and Cowboys winning the division, but there are problems with both of those rosters, possibly worse than Washington’s shortcomings. The Redskins have a solid offense, even if they’re unproven at running back with Matt Jones leading the committee. The defense is solid, and improved greatly in the secondary with the addition of Josh Norman. Kirk Cousins is the key to the Redskins season, will he prove himself to be the franchise quarterback he showed at times last season? Or will he be the guy who couldn’t take the reins from an ineffective RGIII in years prior.
  2. New York Giants – No team spent more to rebuild their defense than the Giants did this offseason, adding Janoris Jenkins, Damon Harrison, Olivier Vernon, Leon Hall, and re-signing Jason Pierre-Paul, plus drafting Eli Apple to boot. That’s a ton of moving parts for a defense that finished last in the league last season, so chemistry may be an issue early on. The passing game should be fine with OBJ, Eli Manning, and second round rookie Sterling Shepard leading the charge, this is an offense that should be able to score some points. Rashad Jennings and Shane Vereen form a solid tandem out of the backfield. Will the offensive line hold up? That, along with a lack of defensive chemistry holds this team back from winning the division.
  3. Dallas Cowboys – Rolondo McClain, suspended, DeMarcus Lawrence, suspended, Randy Gregory, suspended, Tony Romo, injured. These guys will miss a minimum of 4 games (Romo 6-10 games, McClain, 10 games). Yes, Dak Prescott lit up the league during the preseason, but with 2 rookies leading the backfield in Prescott and Zeke Elliot, there could be some early hiccups, something the offense can’t afford to do with the 2 best pass rushers and the revitalized middle linebacker gone for part of the season could sink the Cowboys before they ever have the chance to get started. The offensive line is the most talented in the league, they’re deep at receiver and tight end, which will help the rookie QB, but the Cowboys could be too far behind to catch up to the Giants and Redskins.
  4. Philadelphia Eagles – After trading away Sam Bradford to the Vikings, and declaring Carson Wentz as the starter, it appears that the Eagles are probably playing for next year. This is a team without a star playmaker or go-to guy on offense, Jordan Matthews is a nice complementary piece, but not a #1 receiver, Nelson Agholor hasn’t come into his own yet, Dorial Green-Beckham just got traded for Dennis Kelly, which says a lot for how much the Titans valued him, Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles are both very good players, but they aren’t exactly guys defensive coordinators are game planning specifically to stop. As for the defense, this unit should be strong, as they’re loaded with talent and coached by Jim Schwartz, who was last seen coaching the Bills to be the 4th best defense in the league in 2014. This team has a bright future, but this season could be rough.

NFC North:

  1. Green Bay Packers – Originally, I had the Vikings in this spot, up until the Teddy Bridgewater injury, as he knew the offense, and was an  emerging player in the division. Now, with Green Bay getting back Jordy Nelson, Eddie Lacy no longer rounding out.. well, everywhere, the offense is set up to resume its great play of the past few years under Aaron Rodgers. Not to mention that the defense should be improved with Clay Matthews moving back to his natural position at outside linebacker in the Packers 3-4 scheme. He and Julius Peppers can again terrorize opposing quarterbacks coming off the edges.
  2. Minnesota Vikings – The drop from first to second could easily be a drop to third in the division this year if newly acquired Sam Bradford can’t learn the playbook quickly, or if the Vikings repeat the mistake they made with Josh Freeman back in 2013, rushing him out as the starting quarterback after only being on the roster for 13 days. The Vikings have a solid team, with Adrian Peterson hard charging, the defense which is loaded with talent at every level, but if Bradford implodes, this team could fall fast.
  3. Detroit Lions – After the retirement of Calvin Johnson, this team lost their face of the franchise, however, the Lions didn’t sit still at the receiver position, adding Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin to play along side Golden Tate, Eric Ebron, and Ameer Abdullah out of the backfield. On top of that, Matthew Stafford finished last season white-hot, throwing 19 touchdowns against just 2 interceptions in the last 8 games, if he can pick up where he left off, the Lions could finish in a surprising second place, provided the defense can take a step up.
  4. Chicago Bears – The Bears are in a full rebuild, the defense will be improved from last year, considering they finished 14th in the league, that should help the Bears stay in games. However, the offense is a different story, Jay Cutler is still the quarterback, but he no longer has Adam Gase directing the offense, what does this mean for Cutler? Who knows, and even though he didn’t turn the ball over as much last year, he was still not dynamic enough to lead the Bears offense to a successful season, finishing 21st, despite having Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett (Now a Patriot), and Matt Forte (Now a Jet). This could be a long season in Chicago, though, Kevin White should be exciting to watch.

NFC South:

  1. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers are the class of the NFC South, with only a few weaknesses including the offensive line and the secondary. Until someone can knock them off, they are the champs of the NFC South, Cam Newton, the reigning MVP, is also getting his best receiver from 2014 back in Kelvin Benjamin, who appears to be fully recovered from a torn ACL, combine that with the improved Devin Funchess, and you have a huge, scary receiving group for Cam to throw to. The defense is still scary in the front 7, and the running game should still be strong.
  2. Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons are in a very strange place right now, they’re not a title contender, but also not in total rebuild mode. There are some really nice pieces in place on the offense and defense, with Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and Matt Ryan leading the offense, along Desmond Trufant, Vic Beasley, and Dwight Freeney leading the defense. It looks like there will be a youth movement on the defensive side of the ball (Sans Freeney) with rookies Keanu Neal, Deion Jones, and De’Vondre Campbell starting, along with second year men Vic Beasley and Grady Jarrett starting (Jalen Collins might be as well, once his 4 game suspension is over.). Dan Quinn should also be appreciated for making a defense that finished last just 2 seasons ago into an average unit, albeit with no pass-rush.
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Bucs are an ascending, young team, but they may be a year away from challenging the Panthers for the division crown, as it remains to be seen if Doug Martin is going to play like he did last year or the two years before that, when he was a middling running back, losing his grip on the starting job. The offense has some legitimate young stars in Jameis Winston and Mike Evans, but the offensive line is, well, offensive when you look at the depth chart. The defense has a few good players, Vernon Heargraves looks to be a keeper at cornerback, Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David have been stalwarts on the defensive line and in the linebacker group. The issues with the Buccaneers come on the offensive line, the lack of a slot receiver, tight end (unless Austin Sefarian-Jenkins can figure out how to play well again), safety, and it remains to be seen if they can generate a pass rush.
  4. New Orleans Saints – It’s been a broken record for New Orleans for a long time now: good offense, no defense for the Saints, Drew Brees goes into his age 37 season this year with a similar team that he’s been playing with for most of his time in New Orleans, good cast of weapons around him, but no one that can stop the opposing offenses. If it wasn’t for the Giants catastrophic defense last year, the Saints would have been the worst in the league yet again. Delvin Breaux is a nice piece in the secondary, but there isn’t much else, and 1 guy can’t cover a whole offense alone. Brees’ arm strength is starting to deteriorate, and this could be the year that it isn’t enough to carry the team to a 7 win season.

NFC West:

  1. Seattle Seahawks – Returning to the top of their division after watching the Cardinals take over last season is the result of Russell Wilson’s rapid ascension from being the quarterback in Marshawn Lynch’s offense to top-level quarterback, he went on a tear at the end of last season to get the Seahawks into the playoffs, then almost led them back to beat the Panthers after falling behind big in the division round of the playoffs. The defense returns most of their pieces, minus Bruce Irvin, and is still among the best in the league. The health of Thomas Rawls and the offensive line play are still question marks that need to be answered. The other looming question is this: when will Jimmy Graham, their expensive offseason acquisition from last offseason?
  2. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals are a veteran team, but is this the year they just become an old team? Last time we saw Carson Palmer in  a meaningful game, he threw 4 interceptions to the Panthers, and before that, he threw 2 more to the Packers. Could we see a Jake Delhomme type fall from grace for Palmer? Maybe not to that same degree, but it is possible we see a regression, and that regression is enough to keep the Cardinals from repeating as NFC West Champions. There are still a lot of good pieces on offense, not to mention a mostly stout defense, with one glaring question: Where is the pass rush going to come from?
  3. Los Angeles Rams – The Rams defensive line is one of the best in football, but outside of that, they have Todd Gurley on offense, Alec Ogletree, Mark Barron, and Trumaine Johnson as their main playmakers. Aaron Donald could be an X-factor though, as he’s closing the gap with JJ Watt as the best defensive player in football, one more year like last year, and we could be looking at another dominant defensive force to be reckoned with. Jared Goff is going to start the year on the bench, as the #3 quarterback, which is a concern when Case Keenum is the starter going into the inaugural season in Los Angeles.
  4. San Francisco 49ers – Oh how the mighty have fallen, the 49ers were a Superbowl contender as recently as 3 years ago, and actually made it to the big game back in 2012, but Jim Harbaugh’s departure left the 9ers in despair, as they crumbled over the next few years, to the point where Blaine Gabbert, yes, that Blaine Gabbert (WARNING: NSFW language in both links) is the starting quarterback. The only playmaker on offense is Carlos Hyde, who should shine in Chip Kelly’s offense… Oh yeah, and speaking of the fallen, Chip Kelly is the new head coach after Jim Tomsula’s mustache got run out-of-town. This is a team that should be contending for the first overall pick in the draft.

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