The Starts, The Sits, and The Risks – Week 1 Edition

Welcome back Football, after a long overdue start to the season, we have FINALLY reached week 1, and you know that that means: Fantasy Football is back too. These are some of my recommendations for guys to start, guys to sit, and risks (either to have a big day if you bench them, or a terrible day if you start them). I also will not make any obvious recommendations, you all know if you have Eddie Lacy that you’re going to start him each week. I also won’t tell you to bench obvious players, because again, you know to not start Matt Barkley.
The Starts:

Lamar Miller (Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Redskins) – With Miami using Miller as a feature back in Bill Lazor’s offense going against Washington’s porous defense, I’m looking for Miller to have a great game, probably breaking the century mark and scoring at least 1 TD, which is a great start for a RB in any week

Chris Ivory (NYJ vs. Cleveland Browns) – Ivory is the #1 back in the Jets offense, and with Fitzmagic back in action after Geno Smith’s jaw-dropping injury (sorry Jet fans, had to get one in there, no more Geno – broken Jaw jokes in this blog) I would look for the Jets to run early and often, especially considering how poorly the Browns defend against the run

Ryan Matthews (Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons) – Most of you would expect me to list Demarco Murray here instead of Matthews, but Matthews might be in for the bigger game, as he will be a nightmare for the Falcon defenders to tackle, maybe even more so than Murray, and I expect Matthews to get more of the goal-line carries. This is going to be a high-scoring game, so I’d start a few Eagles and Falcons this week.

Davante Adams (Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears) – With Jordy Nelson out, Adams is going to have a huge role in the Green Bay offense, which will be going against a very bad defense in Chicago. With Aaron Rodgers at QB and Cobb, while probable for the game, will probably be slightly hobbled, look for Adams to be targeted early and often.

Jarvis Landry (Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Redskins) – It’s gonna be a long year, Redskins fans. I like Landry going against the Skins defense this week, as he should be around the football a lot when the Dolphins look to throw the ball. Redskins gave up a lot of points to wide receivers last year, I don’t expect that to change much this season.

Tyler Eifert (Cincinnati Bengals vs. Oakland Raiders) – Eifert plays in a loaded Bengals offense that features Jeremy Hill and AJ Green, meaning that the Raiders defense will be game planning for those guys the entire offseason. In comes Eifert with the potential to put up some decent fantasy numbers, which is good for the TE position if you didn’t get Gronk or Graham.

Matt Ryan (Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons) – The falcons and Eagles could potentially put up 80 points in this game, and if that’s the case, look for Matt Ryan to have huge numbers. Philadelphia spent a lot of money this offseason to improve their team, but the pass rush isn’t any better, Byron Maxwell was brought in to be a top corner, but the question is, can he cover #1 receivers without Earl Thomas over the top? Ryan has a plethora of weapons to get the ball to, plus Kyle Shanahan made Brian Hoyer look like a decent NFL QB, Ryan should go off in this game.

The Sits

Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings) – Remember that magical stretch Kaepernick and the 49ers had during the 2012 season? That was a long time ago, and the 49ers haven’t exactly improved since then, meanwhile Minnesota has been a trendy pick as a team on the rise, especially considering the way their defense played last season. I would not look to Kaepernick for a quality start this week.

Frank Gore (Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills) – Frank Gore will probably run for 1000 yards a season until he’s about 40 years old, but the quest for another 1000 yard campaign probably won’t start well, considering that the Bills defensive line might be the best in all of football, and excel at stopping the run. The Colts offensive line does not help Gore’s case to be elected as a starter in your backfield.

Melvin Gordon (San Diego Chargers vs. Detroit Lions) – Gordon didn’t look good in the preseason at all, between that, the fact that the Chargers have Danny Woodhead and Brandon Oliver, and that Detroit still has a great defense, even with the losses of Suh and Fairley, makes Gordon someone I would sit for this week.

Steve Smith (Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos) – Smith has had a wonderful career, and has always been tough for teams to defend, however, the Denver defense is going to be among the best in the NFL this season, and with Smith being the only apparent threat the Ravens have in the passing game, I’d look for Denver to try to stop him from burning them.

Torrey Smith (San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings) – 49ers fans, I like the signing of Smith in the offseason, but I don’t like his chances of putting up big numbers this week, as the Kaep – Smith combination will need some time in order to get the chemistry they need on the deep passes. Against a very good Vikings secondary, I don’t see Smith getting free for a huge gainer this week.

Zach Ertz (Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons) – This is one Eagles player I would avoid starting this week, as Ertz is not the number 1 TE on his own team, as Brent Celek still tops the depth chart. Ertz is also dealing with an apparent groin injury, combine that fact with the fact that it’s a Monday night game, it’s just not worth starting him this week.

The Risks

Jordan Reed (Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Redskins) – Reed has been one of those players that’s proven to be tough to figure out, and Kirk Cousins doesn’t exactly clarify things. Miami was not great against TE’s last season, which may seem like Reed would be a good guy to start, but he is a risk, as Miami’s defensive line could hit Cousins early and often, meaning that Reed won’t get many targets. I don’t quite put him on my sit list, but he’s a risky start. Proceed with caution.

Allen Robinson (Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) – Robinson is the #1 receiver for the Jaguars, which is a good thing for his fantasy viability, however, the Panthers defensive line is good enough to get quick penetration into the backfield, meaning that quarterback Blake Bortles could spend a lot of time running for his life rather than throwing strikes to Robinson, but he could also go off against a suspect Carolina secondary. Start at your own risk.

Andre Ellington (Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints) – The curious case of Andre Ellington, he has the potential to have a great game against a very bad Saints defense (Sorry Saint fans, I’m going to be blunt here), however, so do David and Chris Johnson, assuming they all see the field. Ellington is also a high injury risk, but he could also have a great game. My ruling would be to start him, but just cross your fingers when he has the ball.

Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) – Cam is going to be very interesting to watch this season as he adjusts to life without Kelvin Benjamin. I would not look for his passing numbers to be great, as Philly Brown and Tedd Ginn Jr. are his top two wideouts with only Greg Olsen has a reliable passing target. Cam the passer is a sit, but Cam the runner could make a return and have himself a great game. This is one of the toughest calls of the week, but I would say start him if you don’t have another option on your roster or on the free agent market.

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