The Starts, The Sits, and the Risks – Week 3 Edition

After last week’s disappointing performance (on my part), I’m seeking redemption this week. Without further ado, here’s my recommendations for this week:

The Starts:

Latavius Murray – The Browns are currently last in the league in run defense, and this Raider offense took it to the Ravens last week, when Murray had 65 yards and a touchdown. I see Murray having a great game this week as the Raider offense builds off its success from last week. Derek Carr isn’t gonna throw the ball 46 times again, there should, and will be, more balance this week, as the Browns also have the league’s 5th best passing defense going into week 3.

Andy Dalton – Dalton has been playing like a man on fire to start this season (no, that it not an intentional red-head joke), and with the Ravens defense looking like Swiss cheese last week, at the hands of Derek Carr, no less, means that Dalton should be a good play this week. Not to mention that Dalton has an embarrassment of riches to throw to, from AJ Green to Tyler Eifert to Giovani Bernard, someone will be open.

John Brown – After seeing Pittsburgh absolutely shred the 49ers secondary last week, and with Bruce Arians as the Cardinals head coach, this could be a look week 9er fans. Fitzgerald will be the focus of the 49er defense, leaving John Brown to run rampant (hopefully as well as another guy named Brown did last week). What can Brown do for you? Help you get a win this week.

Ladarius Green & Steve Johnson – 2 guys on the same team with Keenan Allen? Why start these two, you might be asking. For Green: The Vikings struggle to contain tight ends, Eric Ebron had 43 yards and a touchdown, Green can match that performance, and maybe go a little above that with Rivers at QB. Steve Johnson on the other hand seems to have a chemistry with Phillip Rivers already, and seems to be in a partial Antonio Gates replacement role. The routes that Johnson runs are similar to what Gates would run, and more importantly, similar to how he runs those routes.

Brandon Marshall – This guy has been a beast and a bully on the field this season, putting up 13 catches for 163 yards and 2 TDs in his first 2 games as a Jet. Marshall will probably be matched up on Byron Maxwell the whole game, who has given up a passer rating of 158.3 this season. Yes, Philly’s $60 Million cornerback has given up a perfect passer rating through 2 games.

The Sits

Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Tannehill – These guys are entering the ring with a pair of tough defenses, despite both of their struggles last week, but that is exactly why these two should be on your bench this week. In a divisional game, with 2 very disappointed and/or angry defenses coming off of tough losses, they will be out for blood. I expect this to be a hard hitting game where the defenses decide it, not the quarterbacks. I’m a huge Tyrod Taylor fan, but this is not the week to start him, same goes for Tannehill.

Demarco Murray and Ryan Matthews – Murray is currently dealing with a hamstring injury, Matthews is dealing with not getting the ball enough, and the Eagles currently sport the league’s worst rushing offense at a whopping 70 yards…. This season. There are currently 35 players with more rushing yards than the eagles have this season. 35, that list includes 4 quarterbacks and the guy they traded away this offseason, LeSean McCoy. Not to mention the terrible offensive line play from the guard position, and the fact that the Eagles are taking on the Jets talented defensive front this week.

Ameer Abdullah and Calvin Johnson – As much fun as Abdullah is to watch play, and as dominant as Calvin Johnson can be, their Detroit Lions host the Denver Broncos this week. Denver’s defense has been frighteningly good this year, sporting the league’s second best defense overall, and the best passing defense. Some may point to their 18th rank against the run, that’s true, but Abdullah is also a rookie, who struggled mightily to the Vikings defense last week, Denver’s defense is far and away more talented at every level than the Vikings are right now. This could be a rough week for both of these guys, with Aquib Talib covering Johnson, and the dominant Denver D-Line penetrating the backfield, I don’t see a strong performance from either of these guys.

Jeremy Maclin – The Kansas City Chiefs had their hearts ripped out on Thursday night, losing a game that seemed destined for overtime, as Jamal Charles fumbled with less than a minute to go, which got returned for a touchdown to give Denver the lead. This week they head to Green Bay, on extra rest, and will need to pass in order to keep up with the Packer offense, but Alex Smith has not thrown a touchdown to a wide receiver since December 8th, 2013. Maclin is a talented player, but playing in Green Bay, against a good Packer secondary will make it tough for Maclin to have a good game.

The Risks

Travis Benjamin – Before the start of this season, this would be insane, starting a Browns wide receiver, it’d be almost as bad as starting a chiefs receiver last year, except that this guy has 6 catches for 204 yards and 3 tds going into this week. He’s a big play threat, and yes, a risky pick to start with Josh McCown starting again, but he may be worth a look anyway.

Jordan Matthews – The Jets defense just shut down the Colts passing attack, featuring a ton of playmakers, the only one to see any success against their secondary was Donte Moncrief, the Colts #3 receiver. Matthews gets a tough draw this week going against one of the best defenses in the NFL. He is a very talented receiver who could have a good game anyway, but he’s a major risk this week to go against Todd Bowles’ talented defense.

James Starks – When the Packers face off against the Chiefs on Monday night, they might be without their top running back, Eddie Lacy, opening the door for Starks to have a good game. The Chiefs run defense has been stout to this point, having held the Broncos and Texans to an average of 80 yards per game. Starks is a talented back, and has a good offensive line in front of him, not to mention the best quarterback in football right now, Aaron Rodgers to throw the ball, which is why I have him as a risk as opposed to a sit this week. I don’t love the matchup, but I do love the talent around Starks. He’s a risky start, but he could put up some good numbers this week if Lacy doesn’t play.

Jimmy Graham – Where has Graham been this season? He only has 7 grabs for 62 yards and a touchdown – that was an okay game for him in New Orleans, but with Seattle, he seems lost in the shuffle. This would seem to be the week where Graham finds his way to the endzone again, right? That’s entirely possible, but with only 2 targets last week, with 1 catch for 11 yards, this could be a sign of trouble going forward. But this is also the Bears defense we’re talking about, they’re bad….. really bad, 39.5 points per game bad right now. He’s a risk for now, but one that might be worth taking, especially as high as he was drafted going into this season.

Week 2 Recap

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers

After putting up 11 points in the 4th quarter last week, Ryan Mallett showed a lot of promise in his ability to lead an offense, so how would Mallett do when he got the chance to start? Complete 27 of his 58 passes for 244 yards, but still had a chance to tie the game at the end despite his struggles. Credit to the Panthers defense for holding the run game to 61 yards, and to Cam Newton for being the entire Panthers offense for the day, throwing for 2 of the 3 Panther touchdowns, and rushing for the other after flipping into the endzone (and almost sticking the landing on top of it) in a 24-17 win. Bad news for the Panthers is the loss of All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly to a concussion.

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers

After the 49ers huge win at home over the Vikings last week, and having every expert rewriting the narrative, saying the 49ers were back in contention. That new narrative was quickly rewritten after being blown out by the hosting Pittsburgh Steelers 43-18. DeAngelo Williams and Ben Roethlisberger each had 3 touchdowns on the day. Carlos Hyde, a week 1 hero, was held to 43 yards on only 13 carries. Antonio Brown went off for 195 yards and a touchdown on 9 catches, showing why he’s among the best receivers in the NFL. On a positive note for the 49ers, Colin Kaepernick threw for over 330 yards and 2 touchdowns, while adding another 51 yards on the ground. The narratives have been taken too far regarding the 49ers, they aren’t great, but they aren’t as bad as many experts claimed before the season. As for the Steelers, they showed why they should be considered a contender this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Who saw this one coming? A bad Tampa Bay team coming off a rough performance against the Tennessee Titans going against a Saints team looking for redemption after a loss to the Cardinals, oh and not to mention the Saints were at home for this one. Once again, the Saints seemed to struggle offensively and the defense wasn’t much better. Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston was making his second career start in the NFL (first one on the road), and while he only threw for 207 yards and a touchdown (ran for another), he also didn’t throw an interception. It was bad enough for New Orleans to lose their home opener 26-19 to the lowly Bucs, worse news for the home team is that Drew Brees suffered an apparent shoulder injury, and his week 3 status is now in jeopardy. If Brees is forced to miss time, this team could be well on its way to the #1 pick in the draft as opposed to #1 in the division. As for Tampa Bay, this was a very nice win for them, and a good confidence boost going forward.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

After week 1, we were all wondering where Adrian Peterson had gone, and if father time had caught up to him already (even worse for fantasy players who had taken Peterson in the first round). Peterson proceeded to make sure none of us make that mistake again, after gaining a total of 195 yards against the Detroit Lions seemingly porous defense. As for Detroit, the offense was alarmingly quiet, despite 10 catches and a touchdown for Calvin Johnson, he only put up 83 yards. Matthew Stafford threw the ball 53 times, but only gained 286 yards through the air. Rookie sensation Ameer Abdullah only put up 9 yards on 6 carries in a 26-16 loss at the hands of the Vikings.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bars

The good news for the Bears: Jay Cutler completed 88.9% of his passes in this game, the bad news, his one incompletion was an interception, the ugly news, Cutler has a hamstring injury, and might not be able to play for 2 weeks. Enter Jimmy Clausen (Yeah, remember him?) as he promptly lead the bears to a….. 48-23 loss at the hands of Larry Fitzgerald and the Cardinals. Fitzgerald looked like his old self: catching 8 passes for 112 yards and 3 touchdowns on the day, 3 of the 4 thrown by Carson Palmer. The Cardinals are a sneaky great team who could end up winning this division if Carson Palmer can stay healthy and the Seahawks continue to flounder (More on that later). The Bears, in the meantime, have a lot of work to do.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Going into this game, Bill Belichick had to be liking his chances going against a quarterback in Tyrod Taylor making his 2nd career start, as Belichick normally devours young quarterbacks’ souls for lunch (that might not just be a metaphor either…). By the start of the 4th quarter, it appeared that Belichick and Brady were well on their way to being 2-0 in a blowout. In 59 attempts for Brady, he threw for 466 yards in this game. The Bills responded to a 37-13 deficit by unleashing Taylor and their offense, scoring 19 of their 32 points in the 4th quarter, closing the gap to 37-32, but a New England field goal with only a few minutes left gave Taylor the chance to be a hero, all he had to do was score a touchdown and convert a 2 point conversion to tie the game, but alas, Taylor was intercepted to end Buffalo’s final drive. The young QB did show a lot of potential and fight in this game, this Bills team could be here to stay if Taylor can continue to put up points: not many teams will score 40 on the Bills this year.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals

After last week showed the return of Keenan Allen for the Chargers, he only added 2 catches for 16 yards in this contest. This game belonged to Giovani Bernard, carrying the ball 20 times for 123 yards after Jeremy Hill was benched for fumbling the ball twice in this game, on only 10 carries. Andy Dalton threw 3 touchdowns to lead the Bengals over the visiting San Diego Chargers. A positive note for the Chargers: Melvin Gordon looked great, gaining 88 yards on only 16 carries while adding a catch for 10 yards. Steve Johnson also added a touchdown to go with his 5 catches for 45 yards in the 24-19 loss.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

Marcus Mariota couldn’t continue his perfect passer rating from last week, though he did not throw an interception, he did unfortunately fumble 3 times, losing 2 of them in a game where he looked confused at times against the Cleveland defense. On the other side, Johnny Manziel only threw the ball 15 times (to Mariota’s 37) and completed 8 of them for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns, including 2 50+ yard strikes to Travis Benjamin in a 28-14 win over the visiting Titans. This was Johnny Manziel’s first career win, and he looked pretty good, aside from the 2 fumbles that his teammates were able to hop on. Despite the win, it appears that Josh McCown will be taking back the starting job from Manziel next week.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants

It was De ja vu for the New York Giants this week, as they held a double digit lead in the 4th quarter, only to watch it fall in a loss, this time to the Atlanta Falcons. Odell Beckham looked much better this week, catching 7 balls for 146 yards and a touchdown (only 1 for 7 yards after halftime though). Unfortunately for the Giants, Julio Jones was the receiver that proved to be unstoppable, collecting 13 passes for 135 yards. Credit goes to the Giants for taking advantage of a Falcon defense that looked weak at points during the day to get out to the 20-10 lead, which could have been 27-10 if not for an Eli Manning fumble forced by Kroy Bierman. Matt Ryan and company would not be stopped from making the game 20-17, then 24-20 after forcing a 4th down punt on a bizarre 3rd and 7 that became 3rd and 12 after a delay of game penalty, where the Giants would throw pass that was completed, but for only 5 yards. This Falcon team isn’t the same team from the last 2 years, they seem to be much tougher in crunch time, as the defense came up with a huge stop on the Giants final drive to seal the 24-20 win for Atlanta.

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins

After the Rams took care of business against the Seahawks, they appeared primed to take off as a contender in the NFC West, only to fall short to Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins 24-10. Foles, despite a great outing last week, only threw for 150 yards and the Rams leading rusher was Tavon Austin with 40 yards. The Redskins on the other hand had Kirk Cousins complete 23 of 27 passes for 203 yards, and rookie Matt Jones ran for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19 carries. Jordan Reed led the charge in the Redskins passing attack with 6 catches for 82 yards. The Rams problems of yesteryear, defending the run and poor quarterback play, reared they’re ugly heads once again. As for the Redskins, with the Giants and Eagles at 0-2 and the Cowboys losing Tony Romo and Dez Bryant for long periods of time, they’ve got to feel like they have a chance in the NFC East.

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars

With all of the hype surrounding the Miami Dolphins this offseason, it seemed like they would be a true contender in the AFC East, and after a tough win over the Redskins, how would they follow up that performance? The Dolphins let Blake Bortles, QB of the Jaguars, lead his team to victory on a game winning field goal drive, starting with 1:48 left in the game. This was a day that belonged to the Jaguars, as Bortles had one of his best career games on the heels of Allen Robinson’s career day, in which he had 6 catches for 155 yards (of Bortles 273 yards) and 2 touchdowns. Miami kept it close, as the game was tied going into the 4th quarter until that final drive. Ryan Tannehill had over 350 passing yards on 44 passing attempts, as the passing offense looked great, it was the run game that faltered, as Tannehill was also the leading rusher on the day with 17 yards. With this win, the Jags avoided their 4th consecutive 0-2 start.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders

One of the quarterbacks in this game completed 30 of their 46 passing attempts for 351 yards for 3 touchdowns, including the game winning touchdown, the other played for the Baltimore Ravens. Yes, Derek Carr shredded the Ravens defense throughout the day, dropping 37 points on a team known historically for their great defenses. Not to say Joe Flacco had a bad game by any means, as he had 384 yards of his own against the Raiders, and lead his team to 13 points in the 4th quarter to take a 33-30 lead. Carr lead the Raiders on a 9 play, 80 yard drive that took 1:44 off the clock, as Carr hit Seth Roberts for a 12 yard touchdown with 26 seconds to play.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

The curse of 370 seems to be on DeMarco Murray, as he carried the ball 13 times on Sunday against the Eagles hated rival, and Murray’s old team, the Dallas Cowboys. How many yards did Murray rack up against his old team? 2. 2 rushing yards on the day, he did however, add 53 yards through the air. Chip Kelly and his Eagles did not look good in any phase of this game on Sunday, even on defense after Tony Romo was injured, Philly couldn’t stop Dallas. The Eagles are in serious trouble, and Chip Kelly’s retooling of this team is under some serious questioning. Dallas has a few questions of their own to answer with the injuries mounting and an important game next week against the Atlanta Falcons. No Dez Bryant, no Tony Romo (broken collarbone), and possibly no Jason Witten, this team could be in a lot of trouble.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

In this rematch of last year’s NFC title game, these familiar foes engaged in an epic clash, where the Seahawks won the game in overtime, despite Russel Wilson’s 4 interceptions. There would be no such repeat here, as the Packers, hosting this time, won the game 27-17 on the arm of Aaron Rodgers and his 2 touchdowns, along with James Starks, adding 95 yards on the ground. The Packer defense was able to contain the beast known as Marshawn Lynch to only 41 yards rushing. Despite the off night from “Beast mode”, the Seahawks were still in this game until about Green Bay drove down the field for a field goal, taking about 5 minutes off the clock in the 4th quarter, after Russel Wilson threw an interception at his own 38 yard line, which made the game a 2 possession game with only 2 minutes to play. Seattle did move the ball on their next drive, but a Fred Jackson fumble sealed the game for the Packers.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Surely Andrew Luck, the quarterback who led the league in touchdown passes last year, would rebound in a big way after his week 1 stumble at the hands of the Buffalo Bills, especially at home against the Jets, right? Wrong, as Luck and the Colts would give the ball away to the Jet defense 5 times, including 3 interceptions by Luck on a night where he looked lost, Frank Gore looked human, and Andre Johnson looked slow. It was the Jet passing offense that looked sharp. In that Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker combined for 15 catches for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Jet running game was slow, but Ryan Fitzpatrick led the passing offense to do enough to win the game on the road for the Jets. One positive for the Colts was the play of Donte Moncrief, who had 7 catches for 122 yards and a touchdown. The Jets looked great in this win, if they keep it up, they could be looking at a winning season for the first time since 2010.

The Starts, The Sits, and The Risks – Week 2 Edition

With Week 1 in the books, and everyone in panic mode with their drafts “Is Adrian Peterson gonna be a bust once again?” “Did I miss on Keenan Allen?”, all I can say is this: R-E-L-A-X, it’s week one, just keep reading these posts and you’ll be alright.

The Starts

Drew Brees, Mark Ingram, and Brandin Cooks – If you have players on what should be a high caliber offense going against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you should definitely start them, I see a nice bounce back from all 3 guys in the home opener for the Saints in the confines of the Superdome.

Carlos Hyde – This guy was electric on Monday Night Football, absolutely thrashing what should be a very good Vikings defense, and in going to Pittsburgh, the 49ers don’t face a nearly as difficult of a test in the trenches, look for San Francisco to run the ball frequently with their new bell-cow running back in Carlos Hyde, a few more performances like Monday night, we’ll be talking about a new face of the 49ers offense.

Ameer Abdullah – Man this guy has the potential to be something special with his short area quickness, even if he lacks the elite top-end speed, he can move like very few other players in the NFL. After watching the way Carlos Hyde tore the Vikings apart, I can’t help but think that Detroit is going to feed this guy carries going forward, I like him a lot this week to put up some points, if you got him, start him.

John Brown – His first 15 minutes of the season looked fantastic: 4 catches for 46 yards and a touchdown made all of us who didn’t start him immediately regret that decision, but as that was his final stat-line as well, it made all of us feel better. Brown should be in for a good game against an over-matched Bears defense, especially with Carson Palmer slinging the ball all over the field.

Steve Johnson – Keenan Allen caught all of the passes last week (seriously, the guy caught 15 passes, that’s a great 2-3 game stretch for some players), but lost in that was the day that Johnson put up: 6 catches for 82 yards and a touchdown while playing in Antonio Gates’ role in the slot. Johnson was sharp and appeared to have good rapport with Rivers in the first regular season game they’ve played together.

Bishop Sankey – Sankey had a good game last week against Tampa Bay, he set career highs in rushing yards and touchdowns, which is great, granted he had 74 yards, which doesn’t exactly inspire hope, but against the Browns defense, which had no answer for Chris Ivory last week, Sankey could be in for another good game. He had only 14 touches last week, but I would look for that to increase this week.

The Sits

Tre Mason – Mason had a great rookie year, however, as we’ve seen with other running backs from St. Louis (anyone remember Zac Stacy?), one great year doesn’t always translate, and starting a guy coming off of an injury who figures to be a 2-down running back in a running back by committee with Benny Cunningham, I don’t see Mason as a viable starter in this weeks matchup with the Redskins, who just held Lamar Miller to around 4 yards a carry.

Sammy Watkins – Bill Belichick knows how to shut down young quarterbacks, and I don’t expect that to change despite the personnel deficiencies the Patriots appear to have in their secondary, as this game will feature Tyrod Taylor in his second career start (I am a believer in Taylor, I just don’t like his chances of completing a lot of passes). The Pats will pay a lot of attention to Watkins as well as the Bills running game.

Patriot Running Backs – The Bills defensive line is among the best in the league, and no one really knows who the Patriots will use at running back until the game has already started, which is too late for fantasy leagues. We all remember what happened with Jonas Gray, 200 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Colts, everyone added him in their leagues, and there were people disappointed to not get Jonas, only to see him never touch the ball again. I’d stay away due to the matchup and the mystery of adding a player that may not see the field, let alone starting him.

Allen Robinson – I like Robinson as a player for this season, just not for this week as he and the Jaguars take on the Miami Dolphins, who happen to field a very good defense lead by Ndomukong Suh and Brent Grimes, who will be covering Robinson. This week will be rough on Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson, I’d leave these guys on the bench.

The Risks

Cam Newton – Cam is normally a very solid quarterback, as he is able to run with the football and throw it…. when he has receivers who can catch the ball. Philly Brown and Ted Ginn are not those receivers, Greg Olsen is a good tight-end, but he only hauled in 1 catch for 11 yards in the season opener for the Panthers against the Jaguars. A game in which Newton was only good for around 12.5 points in most leagues, that does not bode well when JJ Watt and the Houston Texans are coming to town. I expect Newton will be held in check for this game.

49er WRs – Will the real Colin Kaepernick please stand up? If the guy from 2012 returns, this group will be great, as they have dynamic speedsters in Torrey Smith and Vernon Davis at TE, as well as old reliable Anquan Boldin to haul in every pass on 3rd down. However, as long as Kaep is unable to be consistent, the same will be true of the WRs in the bay area, as Smith could connect on a long TD, or have 2 catches for 28 yards, you just never know.

Kyle Rudolph – The good news is that Rudolph was targeted 7 times, the bad news is that he only turned that into 5 catches for 53 yards. This week Rudolph has a chance to redeem himself with a matchup against the Lions, who’s defense just got shredded in the passing game, including Chargers TE Lardarius Green. Rudolph has a good matchup here, but it’s a matter of erasing the memories of an ugly debut at the hands of the 49ers that makes him a risk.

Arizona Running Backs – If you’re a gambling person, you can ride or die by the Johnson….. let me rephrase that, you can either start Chris or David Johnson, only to watch the one you didn’t start score a touchdown in the game against the Bears while the guy you start finishes with 33 yards on 7 carries. Start one of these guys at your own risk, rumor is that Chris Johnson will get a bulk of the carries, but can you take the risk only by rumors?

Week 1 Recap

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For the first time in NFL history, we got to see the first two picks of the draft face off in a battle that was sure to be a showdown of epic proportions, well, at least it started that way. Marcus Mariota threw a touchdown for the Titans on his first drive of the game, how would Jameis Winston respond? By also throwing a touchdown pass on his first drive, unfortunately for Winston and the Bucs, that touchdown also went to the Tennessee Titans. Mariota threw for 4 first half touchdowns in his debut, only Fran Tarkenton had 4 touchdown passes in a rookie debut, but Tarkenton needed the whole game to accomplish this feat. Winston also had a debut comparable to a Hall of Famer: Brett Favre, as Favre’s first professional pass was a pick-six. Titans win in a blowout, 42-14

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams

Talk about a crazy game, Rams take an 11-point lead into the 4th quarter after a dominant performance by their defense and special teams as the Rams got 6 sacks of Wilson and a punt return touchdown from former first round pick Tavon Austin. Seattle proceeded to score 18 straight points in the 4th after a strip sack of newly-acquired Rams QB Nick Foles from newly acquired cornerback (and former teammate in Philly), Cary Williams put the Seahawks up by 7 with only four and a half minutes to go. Foles proceeded to drive the Rams down the field against the vaunted Legion of Boom secondary, minus Kam Chancellor, and tied the game on a pass to Lance Kendricks over Chancellor’s replacement. Seattle called a bizarre onside kick attempt to start the overtime period, which set up a Rams field goal. The play of the game came on 4th and 1 from the Rams 41. Wilson hands the ball to Lynch and he…. Gets stuffed for a 2 yard loss, ball game over, Rams win 34-31

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills

We all expected to see stellar quarterback play from one team and expected mediocrity from the other, but no one expected Tyrod Taylor to outplay Andrew Luck in a game that was 24-0 at one point before two garbage time touchdowns made the score 27-14. Luck was intercepted twice and harassed all day by a ferocious Buffalo defense lead my defensive mastermind Rex Ryan. On the other side, Tyrod Taylor was very impressive in his first NFL start, as he lead his team out to a big lead over a preseason darling, seemingly destined to contend for the Superbowl.

Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers

When this game was 21-3 in the early goings, Detroit appeared ready to make a statement to the rest of the league that they would be just fine on the defensive side of the ball without Ndamukong Suh. Enter Keenan Allen, who broke out of last year’s sophomore slump in truly dominant fashion: to the tune of 15 catches for 166 yards, the return on Danny Woodhead also contributed to San Diego’s comeback bid, adding 2 touchdowns to his 42 yards rushing. The Chargers outscored the Lions 23-7 after halftime, leading San Diego to a 33-28 victory.

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

This matchup promised us a thrilling QB duel between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh McCown and within the first quarter of action we see McCown try to do his best John Elway impersonation which leads to a concussion for McCown, and a fumble in the endzone, resulting in a touchback. Enter Johnny Manziel, who looked great early on, throwing a nice touchdown pass to Travis Benjamin, but otherwise seemed to struggle with the Jets defense. The real storyline in this game, however, was the play of Jets RB Chris Ivory, who rumbled his way to 91 yards and 2 touchdowns on the day.

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville’s defense appeared to be much improved over last year, as for most of the day, they were able to hold Carolina’s offense in check for most of the day, only giving up 13 offensive points (the other 7 were from a pick six thrown by Blake Bortles), however, the offense continued to struggle as they were only able to muster up 9 points in their home opener. The biggest story coming out of this game is the loss of Panthers star linebacker Luke Kuechly, as he left the game with a concussion. Kuechly is the heart and soul of the Panther defense, if he’s forced to miss any time; that could have a huge impact on this team. Panthers win 20-9

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

No one expected this to be a close game, Aaron Rodgers normally demolishes the Bears (93-31 in their last 3 meetings). However, this time proved to be a little more challenging for Green Bay, as Chicago did not go quietly into the mid-afternoon, as they pulled within 8 before their onside kick attempt failed with 34 seconds left in the game. Chicago showed a lot of fight in them in this game, as they did take a 13-10 lead into halftime before falling at the hands of their hated rivals 31-23 in Green Bay’s 700th with in franchise history.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

With high hopes in Houston at the start of this season, to see Alex Smith’s Chiefs race out to a 27-9 lead on 3 touchdown passes from Smith, 2 of which landed in the arms of a rising star at tight-end: Travis Kelce. Brian Hoyer of the Texans started out very slowing, throwing a touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins in the first quarter, but after 2 turnovers and all around ineffective play gave way to Ryan Mallett, who hammered away at the Chiefs lead, putting up 11 points in the 4th quarter alone. Could we see Mallett under center next week? Maybe JJ Watt should start taking snaps, he can do just about everything else after getting 2 sacks and 6 tackles for loss (out of 7 tackles for loss the entire Houston defense mustered up.) Chiefs win this one 27-20 in Houston.

Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins

Miami was expected to waltz into DC and show Washington how to get things done, but in true Washington DC fashion, the Redskins slowed a forward thinking idea in Bill Lazor’s Chip Kelly inspired offense. Kirk Cousins lead Washington out to a 10-0 lead before a Dolphin drive late in the first half cut the lead to 10-7. Miami did tie the game, and found their filibuster in Jarvis Landry, who took a punt 69 yards for the deciding score, making this a 17-10 victory for the Dolphins in a game where Ryan Tannehill appeared to miss several open receivers.

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders

Welcome back Tyler Eifert, wow did he have himself a coming out party at the expense of the Oakland Raiders, catching 9 passes for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns, Jeremy Hill also shined as he gained 63 yards and scored 2 touchdowns of his own. As for the Raiders, they lost Derek Carr early to a hand injury on an odd play where he attempted to stiff arm his way to a first down, using his throwing hand to stiff arm. Bengals roll over Oakland 33-13

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals

Speaking of returning from injury, welcome back Carson Palmer, who came back from a torn ACL to throw for 307 yards and 3 touchdowns against a suspect Saints defense. The good news for the Saints? Drew Brees still looked pretty good for most of the game. The bad news? Brees was only effective until the Saints reached the redzone, where they struggled mightily, as they scored a touchdown only once in 4 trips. Jimmy Graham would have been a huge help for this team in the redzone, as his 6 foot 7 frame has easily boxed out defenders for his entire New Orleans career. Could this be a problem going forward? As for the Cardinals, they looked great for most of the game, however, the injury to Andre Ellington could loom large for their running game, can Chris and David Johnson step up in his absence? Cardinals win 31-19

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos

In a game where we expected quarterback play to be the deciding factor, it turned out to be true… to an extent. It’s week one, so the performances of Joe Flacco and Peyton Manning are not necessarily barometers on how they’ll play all season, but I give all the credit to the ferocious defenses of Baltimore and Denver, as they truly set the tempo is this hard-fought, physical matchup between AFC powerhouses. Each defense scored a touchdown off of an interception, both offenses struggled mightily to move the ball, however, it was Denver that mustered up more offense in the end, and their defense sealed the game with an interception in the end zone after a huge drop by Steve Smith in the endzone. Denver emerged victorious by a score of 19-13.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Al Michaels summed this game up perfectly by simply saying that it would take about 20 minutes to explain, I’ve got one paragraph, so without further ado: Dallas came into this game as the favorite, despite the many questions surrounding their running game, which were not quite answered against the Giants. Dallas committed 3 turnovers and seemed to be melting down before January had even arrived, and the Giants responded by taking a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter on a Rashad Jennings 1 yard run for a touchdown. Seemed like the game was over at that time, but the Cowboys did not quit, as they scored a touchdown of their own to make the game 23-20. Dallas failed to stop the Giants until they got into the redzone, that’s when the strangest play in this game occurred: On a third and goal from about the 2 yard line of Dallas, Eli Manning throws the ball away on a play action fake with 1:37 to go. Dallas had no timeouts remaining, 72 yards, and a 6 point deficit after a Josh Brown field goal. 6 plays and 1:30 seconds later, Jason Witten catches the game winning touchdown for the Cowboys in a thrilling 27-26 victory

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons

Chip Kelly’s new look Eagles against Dan Quinn’s new look Falcons featured a lot of stars on the offensive side of the ball for both teams. Everyone expected this game to be barn burner where the teams would combine for a ton of points and the defenses would be barely holding on. So naturally the first quarter ended in a 3-0 lead for the Falcons, who took their lead to 20-3 before the half, which would have been worse if not for a phenomenal interception by newly acquired Kiko Alonso, robbing Roddy White of a sure touchdown. Philadelphia came roaring back in the second half and would eventually take the lead 24-23 in the 4th quarter, Atlanta would respond with a field goal from Matt Bryant to re-take the lead 26-24. The Eagles took the ball down the field and would attempt a 44 yard field goal to retake the lead, Cody Parkey misses the kick wide right, and after a 3 and out by Atlanta, Philly had another chance to win the game, but Sam Bradford was intercepted by Ricardo Allen to end the comeback bid. Julio Jones made his case for being the best receiver in the NFL on a night where he caught 9 passes for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns, but the Falcons defense deserves a ton of credit for winning them this game, as they were in Sam Bradford’s face all day, forced 2 interceptions, and held Demarco Murray to 9 yards on 8 carries.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers

This game featured a team with a lot of young talent, a strong running game, and a stout defense squaring off against the Minnesota Vikings, a preseason sleeper team for many. Carlos Hyde and the San Francisco 49ers showed that they are not backing down or letting anyone walk all over them, especially not Adrian Peterson in his return from suspension. This game was all about the 49ers showing that they can still compete with anyone in this league, despite all of the “The sky is falling” talk all offseason. Navarro Bowman was playing like a man possessed on defense, and led his team in only giving the Vikings 3 points for the week. 3 points to a team with Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace, and Kyle Rudolph at the skill positions. That’s impressive on any day, but especially after all that the 49ers lost this offseason, this was an emotional win 20-3 over a team that was expected to be a sleeper.

Terrell Suggs Out for the Season

The Baltimore Ravens added injury to insult on Sunday, not only losing a tough, gritty, defensive game in Denver, but have also lost their defensive heart and soul in 6-time Pro-Bowler Terrell Suggs to an Achilles injury. This injury not only hurts as the loss of a leader, but it also means they lose out on a still very effective pass-rusher, leaving Elvis Dumervil as their only proven player to get after the quarterback. Baltimore’s road to the playoffs just got a lot harder after losing the game and one of their most effective defenders on the same day, their defense is still very talented, but this is a major blow. The Ravens offense needs to step up in Suggs’ absence, especially Joe Flacco, who must drastically improve on the miserable 18/32 passing for 117 yard, 2 interception performance.

The Starts, The Sits, and The Risks – Week 1 Edition

Welcome back Football, after a long overdue start to the season, we have FINALLY reached week 1, and you know that that means: Fantasy Football is back too. These are some of my recommendations for guys to start, guys to sit, and risks (either to have a big day if you bench them, or a terrible day if you start them). I also will not make any obvious recommendations, you all know if you have Eddie Lacy that you’re going to start him each week. I also won’t tell you to bench obvious players, because again, you know to not start Matt Barkley.
The Starts:

Lamar Miller (Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Redskins) – With Miami using Miller as a feature back in Bill Lazor’s offense going against Washington’s porous defense, I’m looking for Miller to have a great game, probably breaking the century mark and scoring at least 1 TD, which is a great start for a RB in any week

Chris Ivory (NYJ vs. Cleveland Browns) – Ivory is the #1 back in the Jets offense, and with Fitzmagic back in action after Geno Smith’s jaw-dropping injury (sorry Jet fans, had to get one in there, no more Geno – broken Jaw jokes in this blog) I would look for the Jets to run early and often, especially considering how poorly the Browns defend against the run

Ryan Matthews (Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons) – Most of you would expect me to list Demarco Murray here instead of Matthews, but Matthews might be in for the bigger game, as he will be a nightmare for the Falcon defenders to tackle, maybe even more so than Murray, and I expect Matthews to get more of the goal-line carries. This is going to be a high-scoring game, so I’d start a few Eagles and Falcons this week.

Davante Adams (Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears) – With Jordy Nelson out, Adams is going to have a huge role in the Green Bay offense, which will be going against a very bad defense in Chicago. With Aaron Rodgers at QB and Cobb, while probable for the game, will probably be slightly hobbled, look for Adams to be targeted early and often.

Jarvis Landry (Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Redskins) – It’s gonna be a long year, Redskins fans. I like Landry going against the Skins defense this week, as he should be around the football a lot when the Dolphins look to throw the ball. Redskins gave up a lot of points to wide receivers last year, I don’t expect that to change much this season.

Tyler Eifert (Cincinnati Bengals vs. Oakland Raiders) – Eifert plays in a loaded Bengals offense that features Jeremy Hill and AJ Green, meaning that the Raiders defense will be game planning for those guys the entire offseason. In comes Eifert with the potential to put up some decent fantasy numbers, which is good for the TE position if you didn’t get Gronk or Graham.

Matt Ryan (Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons) – The falcons and Eagles could potentially put up 80 points in this game, and if that’s the case, look for Matt Ryan to have huge numbers. Philadelphia spent a lot of money this offseason to improve their team, but the pass rush isn’t any better, Byron Maxwell was brought in to be a top corner, but the question is, can he cover #1 receivers without Earl Thomas over the top? Ryan has a plethora of weapons to get the ball to, plus Kyle Shanahan made Brian Hoyer look like a decent NFL QB, Ryan should go off in this game.

The Sits

Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings) – Remember that magical stretch Kaepernick and the 49ers had during the 2012 season? That was a long time ago, and the 49ers haven’t exactly improved since then, meanwhile Minnesota has been a trendy pick as a team on the rise, especially considering the way their defense played last season. I would not look to Kaepernick for a quality start this week.

Frank Gore (Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills) – Frank Gore will probably run for 1000 yards a season until he’s about 40 years old, but the quest for another 1000 yard campaign probably won’t start well, considering that the Bills defensive line might be the best in all of football, and excel at stopping the run. The Colts offensive line does not help Gore’s case to be elected as a starter in your backfield.

Melvin Gordon (San Diego Chargers vs. Detroit Lions) – Gordon didn’t look good in the preseason at all, between that, the fact that the Chargers have Danny Woodhead and Brandon Oliver, and that Detroit still has a great defense, even with the losses of Suh and Fairley, makes Gordon someone I would sit for this week.

Steve Smith (Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos) – Smith has had a wonderful career, and has always been tough for teams to defend, however, the Denver defense is going to be among the best in the NFL this season, and with Smith being the only apparent threat the Ravens have in the passing game, I’d look for Denver to try to stop him from burning them.

Torrey Smith (San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings) – 49ers fans, I like the signing of Smith in the offseason, but I don’t like his chances of putting up big numbers this week, as the Kaep – Smith combination will need some time in order to get the chemistry they need on the deep passes. Against a very good Vikings secondary, I don’t see Smith getting free for a huge gainer this week.

Zach Ertz (Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons) – This is one Eagles player I would avoid starting this week, as Ertz is not the number 1 TE on his own team, as Brent Celek still tops the depth chart. Ertz is also dealing with an apparent groin injury, combine that fact with the fact that it’s a Monday night game, it’s just not worth starting him this week.

The Risks

Jordan Reed (Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Redskins) – Reed has been one of those players that’s proven to be tough to figure out, and Kirk Cousins doesn’t exactly clarify things. Miami was not great against TE’s last season, which may seem like Reed would be a good guy to start, but he is a risk, as Miami’s defensive line could hit Cousins early and often, meaning that Reed won’t get many targets. I don’t quite put him on my sit list, but he’s a risky start. Proceed with caution.

Allen Robinson (Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) – Robinson is the #1 receiver for the Jaguars, which is a good thing for his fantasy viability, however, the Panthers defensive line is good enough to get quick penetration into the backfield, meaning that quarterback Blake Bortles could spend a lot of time running for his life rather than throwing strikes to Robinson, but he could also go off against a suspect Carolina secondary. Start at your own risk.

Andre Ellington (Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints) – The curious case of Andre Ellington, he has the potential to have a great game against a very bad Saints defense (Sorry Saint fans, I’m going to be blunt here), however, so do David and Chris Johnson, assuming they all see the field. Ellington is also a high injury risk, but he could also have a great game. My ruling would be to start him, but just cross your fingers when he has the ball.

Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) – Cam is going to be very interesting to watch this season as he adjusts to life without Kelvin Benjamin. I would not look for his passing numbers to be great, as Philly Brown and Tedd Ginn Jr. are his top two wideouts with only Greg Olsen has a reliable passing target. Cam the passer is a sit, but Cam the runner could make a return and have himself a great game. This is one of the toughest calls of the week, but I would say start him if you don’t have another option on your roster or on the free agent market.

It’s All on the Line

In today’s NFL, we all know the importance of the quarterback position, and the impact that each signal caller has on a game, we also know how important it is for the receivers to get open, the running backs to churn out yards, and even close out a game. None of that matters if the team doesn’t have a good offensive line blocking for them. Out of the 12 teams that made the playoffs last year, 6 of them (The Broncos, Steelers, Bengals, Packers, Ravens, and Cowboys) were ranked in the top 10 (based on the rankings from Pro Football Focus). As for the other teams in the top 10, the Eagles finished 2nd, the Texans 5th, the Browns 6th, and the 49ers 9th. Of the teams in the top 10, only the browns finished with a losing record (Only the Browns, what else is new? Sorry Cleveland fans).

Looking deeper into these rankings, there were 2 teams that stood out among the rest due to significant injuries that were suffered during the season: the Browns and the Dolphins. The Browns looked like they were on their way to a successful season with a dominant offensive line, a good running game, and a stingy defense, but unfortunately for them, center Alex Mack went down in a week 6 victory over Pittsburgh. That offensive line was their lifeblood, and once they lost Mack, they were in serious trouble the rest of the way. Yes, they were 3-1 in the 4 weeks after Mack went down, but those victories came against the Raiders, Buccaneers, and a banged up Bengals team, teams that they should beat. After that span, the Browns only won 1 more game the rest of the year, and that was in a game personally gift wrapped by former Falcons head coach Mike Smith. As for the Miami Dolphins, they ended up finishing as the worst offensive line in the league (according to Pro Footfall Focus rankings), however before the week 10 injury to pro-bowl left tackle Branden Albert, the line was adequate, and lead to the team jumping out to a 5-3 record through 8 games, including a dominant week 1 victory over the Patriots and a 37-0 drubbing of the Chargers. However, once Albert was lost for the season against the Lions, the Dolphins only won 3 games in their last 8 games, including a devastating 37-24 loss to the Jets that eliminated them from postseason contention.

The offensive line sets the tone for the rest of the offense, they open the holes for the running backs to run through, they protect the quarterback from being hit so he can deliver the ball to his pass catchers. A great quarterback with great receivers and a dynamic running back can only do so much if the 5 men in front of them can’t block. Just look at the difference between the 2010 versus the 2013 and 2014 iterations of the Atlanta Falcons for proof of that. In 2010, they were ranked 6th overall by PFF, and they jumped out to a 13-3 record along with the number 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. 2013 and 2014 saw those falcon teams combine for 10 wins, while their offensive line was rated 30th and 26th respectively. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White are all great, but unfortunately, the lack of continuity and talent up front has been partially responsible for 2 top-ten draft picks in the last 2 years. A great offensive line can mask other deficiencies within an offense, a bad one will expose every flaw on that side of the ball.

Pressure on a quarterback mounts over the span of a game, and over the length of a season. Just ask former number one overall draft pick David Carr, who was the Texans quarterback when they first entered the league as an expansion team in 2002. He was sacked a record 76 times that season, as a rookie. He never really had a chance to show what he could have been, getting hit 5 times per game by a hard charging 250-300+ pound defensive end will result in one thought best expressed by Bane in The Dark Knight Rises – “I was wondering what would break first, your spirit, or your body!” Unfortunately for Carr, it was both, as he never displayed the type of talent or athleticism he has displayed in his college years. He was sacked 249 times in 5 seasons with the Texans before they decided to release him in favor of Matt Schaub. Carr would only start 4 more games in his career, all coming as a member of the Carolina Panthers in 2007 before becoming Eli Manning’s backup with the Giants.

An offensive line may not be able to make a quarterback, but they can certainly break one, and yes, at the end of the day, the quarterback is the most important player on the field, but not forget the guys that keep him from getting beaten and bruised on a weekly basis. They’re the heroes that each NFL team needs (but not the one it deserves?) on a weekly basis, while they may be overlooked in favor of the “impact” players who throw, run for, or catch touchdowns, the reality is, they’re the only ones who have an impact on every play. So let’s show the big guys some love, shall we?

Credit to ProFootballFocus for their rankings.